Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.055558 0.063242 0.071853 0.082265 0.094578 0.108750 0.126407
2026-01-18 0.045772 0.055711 0.067812 0.083803 0.104641 0.131238 0.168354
2026-01-25 0.037593 0.048392 0.062498 0.082646 0.111302 0.151589 0.214361
2026-02-01 0.030718 0.041492 0.056455 0.079362 0.114679 0.169098 0.263637
2026-02-08 0.026570 0.037582 0.053811 0.080428 0.124984 0.200600 0.348602
2026-02-15 0.023212 0.034243 0.051417 0.081483 0.136002 0.237951 0.464052
2026-02-22 0.020672 0.031726 0.049858 0.083683 0.150118 0.287435 0.635958
2026-03-01 0.018473 0.029394 0.048190 0.085413 0.164393 0.344823 0.872295
2026-03-08 0.016224 0.026616 0.045253 0.084136 0.172530 0.393985 1.136173
2026-03-15 0.013845 0.023253 0.040673 0.078543 0.169546 0.415626 1.343672
2026-03-22 0.012562 0.021691 0.039243 0.079337 0.182489 0.489674 1.844148
2026-03-29 0.011641 0.020667 0.038701 0.082051 0.201908 0.598482 2.692983
2026-04-05 0.010646 0.019380 0.037452 0.082998 0.217823 0.712463 3.866217
2026-04-12 0.009751 0.018167 0.036157 0.083570 0.233497 0.843383 5.596980
2026-04-19 0.008806 0.016719 0.034095 0.081633 0.240652 0.949070 7.615949
2026-04-26 0.007871 0.015174 0.031562 0.077791 0.239859 1.020348 9.738426
2026-05-03 0.007304 0.014356 0.030618 0.078328 0.256135 1.206814 14.789664
2026-05-10 0.006806 0.013621 0.029758 0.078933 0.273592 1.431715 23.177751
2026-05-17 0.006414 0.013079 0.029293 0.080696 0.297689 1.750443 39.773578
2026-05-24 0.006044 0.012539 0.028739 0.082056 0.321475 2.125029 70.449659
2026-05-31 0.005601 0.011772 0.027463 0.080602 0.331052 2.406851 112.131257
2026-06-07 0.005057 0.010703 0.025209 0.075112 0.316686 2.430262 139.486616
2026-06-14 0.004781 0.010264 0.024645 0.075716 0.336913 2.898818 270.289424